With the betting markets reflecting a late comeback for Harris on the back of the Puerto Rico "garbage" quip and the big money shifting to Harris as mRNA vaccinated first time Gen Z voters and millennial and anti-Vance female and registered Democrats dominate the early voting figures, that paper you wrote will continue to be very relevant Dr. Paul.
With the betting markets reflecting a late comeback for Harris on the back of the Puerto Rico "garbage" quip and the big money shifting to Harris as mRNA vaccinated first time Gen Z voters and millennial and anti-Vance female and registered Democrats dominate the early voting figures, that paper you wrote will continue to be very relevant Dr. Paul.
The shift by the betting markets has NOTHING at all to do with Garbage.
In fact the Garbage has helped Trump thanks to Biden calling Trump supporters Garbage.
The shift in the betting markets has all to do with some leftist pollsters like CNN trying having a few extreme polls mostly in WI and MI to give an illusion of movement.
There is no way that Trump would only have 45% support with RFK Jr on the ballot.
The other reason is that Dems are pouring in some of their left over cash to suppress the betting markets.
Trump is winning the popular vote on RCP. That is outstanding, though Dems follow the biased 538 along with Nate Silver, who has Trump UP TO 55 - 45 chance to win. He was lower.
Trump will probably win the popular vote by at least 2%, which should me he sweeps the Rust Belt.
Only 3 of 16 RCP polls have the Kamunist with a lead in PA where I am. It should be 85% chance for Trump in PA, and thus 85% chance to win election since NV joins AZ, GA and NC as sure W's.
And both Rasmussen (+3) and Trafalgar have Trump wins in WI.
NH is the state that I hope Trump goes after since they all vote on election day and the reliable Rasmussen says Trump is only down 1% in NH and he thinks Trump can win there.
There is easy money to be made by picking Trump to win the popular vote.
I'll be happy if you're correct but I think DeSantis' concerns are well grounded. The Dems greatly outperformed their polls in the 2022 midterms and it's not looking good for Trump in PA where even the over 65yo age bracket appears to be flocking to Harris.
Ron DeSantis тАШconcernedтАЩ Donald Trump wonтАЩt crack Kamala HarrisтАЩs Blue Wall
My assistant, her son and husband will be voting for the first time in their life.
I just finished putting out "Stop Kamunism" yard signs in key locations on the highway. Thousands of people have already seen my "I'm a Liar" Kamala sign in front of my office. It took 5 days before someone stole it, but I replaced it.
The enthusiasm for Kamala is not there, especially in the urban areas.
The enthusiasm for Trump among the Garbage people is pent up, waiting to vote on Tuesday. Will be long lines.
Don't know if McCormick will win, because he hasn't defined himself enough, but lots of other PACS are advertising constantly against Casey.
Trump's "I'm going to Fix It" closing arguments along with the Garbage vest will result in a surge beyond the Republican pollsters projections.
Ignore the fake leftist pollsters like Marist and CNN.
Don't be so gullible about the betting market. It can and is being manipulated, but soon bargain hunters will step in and drive Polymarket back to around 65%. It should be 85% probability.
With the betting markets reflecting a late comeback for Harris on the back of the Puerto Rico "garbage" quip and the big money shifting to Harris as mRNA vaccinated first time Gen Z voters and millennial and anti-Vance female and registered Democrats dominate the early voting figures, that paper you wrote will continue to be very relevant Dr. Paul.
thank you ANW...3 years ago I wrote that.
The shift by the betting markets has NOTHING at all to do with Garbage.
In fact the Garbage has helped Trump thanks to Biden calling Trump supporters Garbage.
The shift in the betting markets has all to do with some leftist pollsters like CNN trying having a few extreme polls mostly in WI and MI to give an illusion of movement.
There is no way that Trump would only have 45% support with RFK Jr on the ballot.
The other reason is that Dems are pouring in some of their left over cash to suppress the betting markets.
Trump is winning the popular vote on RCP. That is outstanding, though Dems follow the biased 538 along with Nate Silver, who has Trump UP TO 55 - 45 chance to win. He was lower.
Trump will probably win the popular vote by at least 2%, which should me he sweeps the Rust Belt.
Only 3 of 16 RCP polls have the Kamunist with a lead in PA where I am. It should be 85% chance for Trump in PA, and thus 85% chance to win election since NV joins AZ, GA and NC as sure W's.
And both Rasmussen (+3) and Trafalgar have Trump wins in WI.
NH is the state that I hope Trump goes after since they all vote on election day and the reliable Rasmussen says Trump is only down 1% in NH and he thinks Trump can win there.
There is easy money to be made by picking Trump to win the popular vote.
I'll be happy if you're correct but I think DeSantis' concerns are well grounded. The Dems greatly outperformed their polls in the 2022 midterms and it's not looking good for Trump in PA where even the over 65yo age bracket appears to be flocking to Harris.
Ron DeSantis тАШconcernedтАЩ Donald Trump wonтАЩt crack Kamala HarrisтАЩs Blue Wall
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/705046-ron-desantis-expresses-concern-that-donald-trump-cant-crack-kamala-harris-blue-wall/
Donald Trump Gets Bad News From Two Early Voting Trends in Pennsylvania
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-bad-news-pennsylvania-early-voting-harris-1978491
I am in Harrisburg, PA
At least a 3% win. I can guarantee that.
My assistant, her son and husband will be voting for the first time in their life.
I just finished putting out "Stop Kamunism" yard signs in key locations on the highway. Thousands of people have already seen my "I'm a Liar" Kamala sign in front of my office. It took 5 days before someone stole it, but I replaced it.
The enthusiasm for Kamala is not there, especially in the urban areas.
The enthusiasm for Trump among the Garbage people is pent up, waiting to vote on Tuesday. Will be long lines.
Don't know if McCormick will win, because he hasn't defined himself enough, but lots of other PACS are advertising constantly against Casey.
Trump's "I'm going to Fix It" closing arguments along with the Garbage vest will result in a surge beyond the Republican pollsters projections.
Ignore the fake leftist pollsters like Marist and CNN.
I live in Montgomery County PA and I voted Early in person. I voted Republican all the way down, I just worry about the Dominion Machines.
In 2020 Philly had more votes than actual registered voters. The courts wouldn't hear any of the lawsuits.
And DeSantis actually does his own research, so he may be onto something. I guess we'll see when it all plays out.
Don't be so gullible about the betting market. It can and is being manipulated, but soon bargain hunters will step in and drive Polymarket back to around 65%. It should be 85% probability.
https://x.com/cdr16web/status/1852505459196153955
The whales are about to step in now that they see a firesale:
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1852496064957297150
Real Clear Politics still hasn't included the Rasmussen # for WI (+3) and MI (+1) even though it came out late Friday.
Rasmussen is the most accurate pollster.
Trump is still winning the RCP average by 0.3% for the popular vote.
That too should shift back up to at least 42%.