There are number of things going on:
1. Healthy User Bias, those getting the 3rd dose are very often the healthiest to begin with. They have not suffered enough side effects from the first two doses to dissuade them from the third. Being healthier, on average, would push their numbers down some.
2. The "data crime" of pushing any sickn…
1. Healthy User Bias, those getting the 3rd dose are very often the healthiest to begin with. They have not suffered enough side effects from the first two doses to dissuade them from the third. Being healthier, on average, would push their numbers down some.
2. The "data crime" of pushing any sickness (and then death from that sickness) in the first two weeks after the 3rd dose into the 2nd dose pushes down the numbers for those with the 3rd dose and pushes up the numbers of the 2nd dose. Same effect occurs in the unvaxxed vs 1st dose. What makes that math slight even worse is that the data available shows a strong immune suppression, particularly of the innate portion of the immune suppression, for those 2 weeks.
3. The flip side of the Healthy User Bias, those in the unvaxxed category include those too sick, unhealthy, or too near end of life to get or justify the vaccine. That pushes the numbers for the unvaxxed up here. This is why you need thorough double-blind trials where the trial groups are setup to account for whatever confounding factors you can think of. This would include age and other comorbidities, such as obesity, diabetes, cancer, etc.
There are number of things going on:
1. Healthy User Bias, those getting the 3rd dose are very often the healthiest to begin with. They have not suffered enough side effects from the first two doses to dissuade them from the third. Being healthier, on average, would push their numbers down some.
2. The "data crime" of pushing any sickness (and then death from that sickness) in the first two weeks after the 3rd dose into the 2nd dose pushes down the numbers for those with the 3rd dose and pushes up the numbers of the 2nd dose. Same effect occurs in the unvaxxed vs 1st dose. What makes that math slight even worse is that the data available shows a strong immune suppression, particularly of the innate portion of the immune suppression, for those 2 weeks.
3. The flip side of the Healthy User Bias, those in the unvaxxed category include those too sick, unhealthy, or too near end of life to get or justify the vaccine. That pushes the numbers for the unvaxxed up here. This is why you need thorough double-blind trials where the trial groups are setup to account for whatever confounding factors you can think of. This would include age and other comorbidities, such as obesity, diabetes, cancer, etc.
Interesting points!